Summer forecast 2021-2025 - Provisions and possible influences
The summer forecast updates a limited number of indicators based on the new macroeconomic conditions highlighted in the first half of this year. The favorable medical situation allowed the significant lift of restrictions, with a positive impact on activity in industry and services, thus leading to an upward revision of the dynamics of the economy for 2021 by two percentage points. Previously, in the spring forecast, a prudent economic growth of 5% was estimated for 2021, given the prolonged state of alert in the first months and the mention of certain restrictions to limit the spread of the virus, the objective of the macroeconomic level being to recover the decrease in the year 2020, creating the premises for a sustainable economic growth.
Features accounted in sustaining the short term newly estimations::
- Real GDP growth by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted series) and the trend of return in annual terms compared to the same period in 2020 (-0.2% per gross series), higher results those forecast in the spring forecast;
- By fields of activity, the positive evolutions in industry, agriculture and constructions were highlighted. Thus, the gross value added in industry increased by 1.9% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, which materialized in a contribution to real GDP growth of 0.3 percentage points. In construction, the gross value added increased by 1.2%, and in agriculture by 2.1%. With regard to the tertiary sector as a whole, gross value added decreased by 0.6%, leading to a reduction in GDP by 0.3 percentage points, but the increase by 10.7% in gross value added in the field of IT, contributing by +0.8 percentage points to the real GDP growth;
- On the demand side, the evolution of the investment process was took into account, which resulted in an increase in gross fixed capital formation by 11.7% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. With a contribution of +2.0 percentage points to the dynamics of the real GDP rate, gross investments are the main factor supporting the transition to the recovery stage of the economic downturn in 2020. Also, private consumption increased by 0.9%, contributing +0.6 points percentage of GDP dynamics. However, the contribution of domestic demand to economic growth of 2.5 percentage points was offset by external demand, which had a negative contribution of 2.7 percentage points;
