Medium‑Term Forecast 2025-2029, Autumn Edition
1. International Context
The international context for the current autumn forecast continues to be complex and tense, given the persistence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Nevertheless, efforts to improve the situation in the Middle East must be noted, as well as the easing of the effects stemming from the United States’ protectionist policies.
The impact of the war in Ukraine persists in the member states of the European Union. Under the effect of sanctions imposed on Russia, European economies have been affected by energy product prices, although these stabilized in the first half of this year at a level close to that of the previous year. At the same time, the European Union is undergoing a full reconfiguration of its security architecture, which implies rising budgetary costs, leading to the prioritization of expenditures and creating risks for fiscal stability.
By contrast, the U.S. tariff policy has had a much smaller impact on global trade than expected, mainly due to increased imports in the first half of the year and bilateral negotiations on trade agreements with the United States. In the coming period, however, these tariffs will gradually be passed on to consumer prices, as their increase will no longer be absorbed by supply chains.
Against this backdrop, in October, the International Monetary Fund estimated a slight slowdown in global economic growth compared with 2024, adjusting its July projection downward by 0.2 percentage points (to 3.2%) and maintaining the forecast for 2026 (3.1%). For the euro area, a cautious economic expansion is expected (1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026), with a mild recovery of the German economy after the decline recorded both in 2023 and 2024 (up to 0.2% this year and 0.9% in 2026), driven by the rebound in private consumption.
In its latest forecast published in December, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimated a 3.2% global economic growth in 2025, followed by a slight slowdown the next year, and an escalation to 3.2% in 2027. The euro area is expected to surpass its 2024 performance and register a 1.4% increase in 2027.
For Romania, the OECD projected a 1.3% moderate economic growth in 2025, followed by a 1.0% increase in 2026, and a recovery to 2.2% in 2027. Private consumption is expected to remain subdued in the first part of 2026, as slowing wage dynamics and fiscal consolidation measures will affect real disposable incomes. Investments will support the economy as EU‑funded projects accelerate, and exports will gradually recover.
Likewise, in November, the European Commission estimated a modest increase for Romania, of 0.7% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, as the fiscal consolidation will reduce both public and private consumption, also affected by high inflation in the first half of next year. The economy will nonetheless continue to advance due to the gradual recovery of private investment, the acceleration of expenditures financed through the NRRP, and the improvement of net exports, which are expected to contribute positively in 2026. Starting 2027, the real GDP growth rate is projected to exceed 2%, as fiscal consolidation eases. Labour market tensions are expected to moderate, while the slowdown in private consumption, combined with resilient exports, will gradually reduce the high external deficit.
Risks to the forecast are predominantly tilted to the downside and stem mainly from escalating geopolitical tensions, political uncertainty, and global fragmentation. Moreover, the prospect of further changes in global trade policy remains concerning. Investments could also be affected by the slow pace of structural reforms and delays in absorbing EU funds. Price pressures, fuelled by disruptions in global supply chains and adverse weather events, may push inflation even higher. Positive risks may arise from potential tariff reductions following new rounds of negotiations with the United States, from accelerated reforms, and from the large‑scale adoption of artificial intelligence – which would boost productivity – thus supporting medium‑term growth.
